We faded the PhD in Pumpanomics 😭

Good morning RIGD.

NVDA saved the market and judging by the pre-market action who knows where the stock will end up closing today.

We made a very serious bet with AK yesterday and will now be forced to purchase him a tuna sandwich.

Lessons learned:

Never fade a PhD in pumpanomics and the master of pumpology

Never make jokes or bets about tuna sandwiches

We wrote that among other things and started with a win and ended with a loss yesterday.

It sucks because we let the emotional side (hatred of NVDA being so overvalued) get in the way of the lizard mania side (don’t get in the way of it).

Not our worst loss but definitely the worst execution since we started this app.

Some words about NVDA being overvalued:

$NVDA Q2 Revenue:

• 2018: $3.1B

• 2019: $2.6B

• 2020: $3.9B

• 2021: $6.51B

• 2022: $6.70B

• 2023: $13.51B

Remember from accounting class revenue is money generated by the business.

$GOOG Q2 Net Income:

• 2018: $3.2B

• 2019: $9.9B

• 2020: $6.9B

• 2021: $18.5B

• 2022: $16.0B

• 2023: $18.4B

Net income takes revenue and subtracts the cost of doing the actual business stuff.

Google generates more a lot more income than Nvidia does in revenue. 

NVIDIA is guiding to $16 billion in Q3.

Let’s pretend they crush it again and do $18 billion and we annualize that to $72 billion a year.

Google did $74.6 billion in revenue in Q2 2023 alone.

A year of NVIDIA revenues equals one quarter of Google.

Market cap comparison:

$GOOG 1.67 trillion vs $NVDA 1.?? trillion when the market opens today.

But… it’s a growth story and growth is all that matters.

NVDA is the pure play on a new technology (generative AI), with complete market dominance (~90% market share for AI-GPUs), and they got around the China ban by handicapping the H100 GPU (big daddy) and making a H800 instead.

There’s a crazy black market for these H100s now. It kind of reminds us when we were all locked into our homes and building gaming PCs and it was just impossible to get an RTX 3080 without paying 2x the retail price.

They ran it back this time with the H100 which at retail is about $10,000 but they can be found for $45,999 (somehow this one is shipping from “Greater China” where there should be export bans).

Anyway here’s what we think:

NVIDIA should be thanking the chatgpt guys with boxes of blood diamonds for setting off the AI craze which meany CEOs were unprepared for. What do those assholes really do all day anyway?

NVIDIA is going to move up the ranks to probably flip Amazon as the fifth most valuable company in the entire world today. Even though they will do less revenue this year than Google did in the second quarter.

There are a lot of signals most of them are noise. The noisiest is probably insider sales.

These types of tweets get a lot of attention like most bear porn out there.

They scream… look at all of the insiders selling shares of NVIDIA. They work there… they must know something!

Or maybe Harvey C Jones (member of the board of directors) just needed $28.4m to buy a new house.

He sold 70,205 shares but still has 796,191 worth an eye blinking $398,095,500 at $500/share.

That’s spicy.

Looking at the action today we expect the lizard people will close $NVDA slightly down or maybe flat for the day. This is the market fucking max participants. One would say with earnings and guidance like that this thing should be up 10-11-12-13% today! That’s true… but you know who runs the show.

LOTTOS GO LIVE TODAY (bugged yesterday)

We’ve entered the third circle of degeneracy with the lotto feature. RIGD AI is constantly monitoring order flow for deep out of the money calls or puts that are bought in size. We’re ignoring sold positions for these. We want to see when and where the lizards are taking big action.

Yesterday it would have worked incredibly well (so today will probably be bad), but it didn’t fire off due the score threshold not being met. We’ve removed score.

Ex: 9:49 AM - 4851x SPY 442c bought at the ask for 0.49

Spot price at the time was 440.11. It’s very rare we see this many contracts bought $2 out of the money!

These traded up to 1.93 for a perfectly traded 293.88% return.

They closed at 1.29 for a measly 163.27% return if held until the end of the day.

It’s cool to see it work… wish we would have tested it prior before shipping the code… and wish we took the trade.

LOTTOS should be considered extremely dangerous even more so than regular 0DTE options because they are out of the money. As always never trade what you’re not willing to see evaporate into flames.

We believe in time LOTTOS will be equally if not more valuable than FLORBS.

Imagine getting a 600 bull at the bottom for a 445c, seeing two green florbs after then two lottos for the 448c.

We can’t wait.

Introducing a new F-Factor to RIGD AI

If you follow us on twitter (@rigd_ai) and frankly shame on you if you don’t… we talked about the biggest problem we have right now.

Simply put: when it works.. it’s stupid how easy it is to print money. We get used to the easy days and when hard days pop-up, we get crushed.

What separates the easy days from the hard ones?

Known events.

Event days like the run up to $NVDA earnings or CPI reports or WHEN JEROME POWELL GIVES HIS SPEECH TOMORROW AT JACKSON HOLE the algo doesn’t function as normal.

All the lizards and their robots are reacting in milliseconds to the news before anyone can even read the headline. We don’t have enough of these “event days” to establish any kind of baseline and probably aren’t smart enough to even create something that can compete.

We want RIGD AI to be the easiest most profitable degenerate system ever created. You shouldn’t have to read the news or watch the markets to use RIGD AI and profitably trade.

We haven’t done the best job at that (we are still very much in beta mode), so this week we’ll step in that direction by introducing a new F-Factor.

Currently we have:

FR - florb ratio (put / call ratio)

FS - florb score (market flow)

And joining the party will be FL = f*ckery level (self-explanatory)

We’re still working through where it will be located on the UI but FL will include a reading or value and then the associated known events.

Yesterday’s FL would have been “MAX LEVELS with $NVDA earnings after the close and some text about how they are the most important stock to the S&P 500”

Tomorrow (Friday) will also be “MAX LEVELS with Jerome Powell speaking at 10:05 AM EST from Jackson Hole”

Summary:

RIGD AI does not work as well on “event” days given we do not have enough data to train the model.

Letting you know what’s happening and how important the event is to the market, will give you a better idea on whether it’s worth your time to trade or should at minimum be treated as cautionary.

Further evolution: 

The core mission at RIGD AI is you don’t have to know what’s happening in markets, you barely have to know how to trade to use the alerts and make money.

Eventually we’ll push another F-Factor (name TBD), that will let you know when the early alerts are hitting and making money. Then it’s signal to tune in.

Additional mild apology:

We write this shit every damn day without using AI, so we’re very in-tune with what’s happening in the markets even if we sometimes suck at trading them. Somewhere in the fight to be funny, entertaining and the burning innate desire to be wanted by you all - we probably don’t do the best job of communicating in third grade understanding level how important some things are. 

Sorry.

But let us tell you one thing here partner… there ain’t nothing better in life than getting up after a knockdown and coming back to t-bag that mf’er.

The game is infinite and we’re just getting started.

Stay frosty and good luck out there!

p.s. beta is open and we’re kind of working on a landing page

thanks for reading THE RIGD REPORT by RIGD AI

First time reader?

Check out what is RIGD AI

we’re building tools for the modern degen investor

please mark us as important in ur inbox bc we are v important

follow us on twitter @rigd_ai