Good or Kinda Good… Limit Up We Go

Good morning we’re never going to admit we traveled without out 2fa device and were unable to login to write this newsletter and that may or may not have been why the past two days you did not receive the rigd report - so yeah if that happened we definitely would apologize but since it didn’t let’s just move on to the news of the day.

Tucker Carlson returned to twitter to say he’s back and that the news will tell you the partial truth but not the whole truth so that the left wing lizard people can take control of our minds and feed us seed oils - or something like that.

The truth is (and you should definitely not trust us) - everyone uses the news to persuade and drive their own agenda. Especially when it comes to the rigged-ness of the stock market.

Let’s look at today’s inflation report which came in cool 4.9% YoY vs 5.0% expectations.

The initial reaction:

US Inflation Shows Signs of Moderating, Giving Fed Room to Pause [ bbg ]

Inflation: Consumer prices in April rise at slowest annual rate in 2 years [ yahoo finance ]

Inflation rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, less than expectations [ cnbc ]

You can file all of those under the pretty fk’ing good stack of papers.

But does it tell the truth?

You would expect CPI + Core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy which are apparently more volatile than used car prices), to fall at a similar rate.

However it looks closer to moderating at 5% (still too high)???

That’s what bears would have you believe…

Here are the real takeaways:

Inflation slowed for the 10th straight month YoY [ callieabost ]

Services ex-rent slowed the most YoY since 2009 [ callieabost ]

Here’s the initial reaction:

Stocks up big pre-market, U.S treasuries ripping and U.S. Dollar down

June rate hike odds down from 20% pre CPI to 10% [ zerohedge ]

If we were betting big on the CPI report (like any true degenerate would), we would have been positioned short.

Flow says one thing (bullish) but Joe Biden said this yesterday:

Not exactly what you lead with the day before if the report is a beat, but maybe this one time they’re trying to convince us it’s not all rigged and Biden’s social media team doesn’t get the numbers before. That or he’s trying to get ahead of real earnings declining 93% of the time during his 27 months of presidency. 2024 is going to be insane.

The Debt Ceiling Non-Issue Issue

The debt ceiling is like the line of credit your bookie gives you each week before collection day. The only difference being when you ask your bookie for an increase it’s so you can win your way back to zero by throwing a hail mary on the Lakers money line taking down the Golden State Warriors at home tonight as they continue their improbable run in the western conference (can you believe that Lebron is 38???)… meanwhile when the government asks to raise the debt ceiling they just kick the can down the road and increase their limit. Unlike you and your bookie Joe - no one is coming to break the government’s knee caps.

Inflation’s out of the way but Biden’s not making any progress on the debt ceiling yet, but we imagine there will be a last minute compromise that includes a few minor spending cuts and a raising of the roof. We’re looking at a 16.45 $VIX as we write this, so the markets are saying it’s a non-issue zero chance a deal doesn’t get made and the media is on to the next issue / non-issue.

[ cnn ]

Looking at the $SPY Meltup on CPI Day

$SPY opened today +0.73% because the bears keep calling for a doomsday CPI and higher for longer scenario that will only happen if they stfu and capitulate to the other side. The hardest thing about trading is always admitting you were wrong.

Premarket:

• Highest OI $417c / $406p

• Max Pain $411

• Highest -GEX $412

Open market:

We’re in the first period (the open) where $SPY gapped up to $414.50, the smart people took profit, now holding on at +0.35% at $412.35. Right now we see the highest positive GEX at 415 and negative gex at 411 and 410. Negative gex acts as a magnet, whereas positive gex acts as a stabilizer.

We aren’t seeing any bullish flow (yet), so it’s possible we get dragged down to the 410 - 411 level as everyone takes profit on the open.

Remember it’s RIGD…

Even if Joe Biden didn’t get the inflation report early someone else did and it clearly shows up yesterday.

Check it out on the one minute chart:

The green bar shows the volume in the last sixty seconds of the yesterday’s session.

Without doing any math (bc math is hard), the volume in the last minute is absolutely insane compared to the rest of the day.

We didn’t see any unusual options flow at the close.

The biggest trade for calls came in at 3:31 for 2,765 $SPY 412s at the bid for 1.57.

One minute after the open today they went to 2.74 for a casual +74.52% overnight.

#rigd

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