Mid Session Lottos = Very Very Profitable

Good morning RIGD.

Just when it started to feel like the market was sooooo back, it looks like it’s all over again.

Yesterday was weird… the biggest stonk in the world Apple was getting killed zero bounce zero bit like a crypto shitcoin and the indices kind of just brushed it off like it was no big deal.

SPY bottomed at 14:02 and QQQ bottomed at 14:04. They were never lower throughout the session.

So Apple gets taken down -3.58% yesterday and you’d think okay it’s over it’s not going to keep bleeding out, but today’s headline says otherwise.

Yesterday we get an iPhone ban at work.

Today we get an expansion of the ban for government employees in sensitive roles.

Tim Cook is about to hop on a flight and bend the knee to get the ban lifted, because if there’s one thing that the bud light transphobic fiesta has shown us it’s that once an idea begins to spread it doesn’t matter whether there was every any truth to it. So if China is going to tell the world the Americans can spy on you through your iPhone… maybe other governments or at least the governments in the BRICS will all join in on the ban.

Personally we believe that Apple is a lot less evil than state run Huawei who’s apparently producing their own chips now in another prime example of Bidenomic backfire… more sanctions gone wrong.

We’re not big into the whole line drawing thing but you know this one seems kind of important?

Why draw lines when you can follow flow is what we’re about

And per usual the lizards already knew about this noise dropping millions and millions in puts that expire on Friday!

Check out these bad boys…

If the score is over 1000, then there’s over 1m in premium spent. It’s crazy to spend 1m in premium for an option with 2DTE (Friday expiry) and typically does not happen unless the buyer knows something.

In this case the lizard people probably knew from their contacts in China that the ban was being extended and someone got exchanged some Tether on Tron for the information and notice that it won’t get leaked until tomorrow’s news.

At the time of writing $182.50 will go 3x at the open.

Middle Session Lottos = Very Very Profitable

Lottos are new but one thing is convincingly clear in the data!

First if you’re a beta member and want to use our very basic (not yet finished) backtesting tool.

You can do so by clicking here.

We’re going to get back to work on this as soon as we get the BOBs and BATs feature done.

Okay so here’s a backtest I ran under the middle session, lotto strategy, 180 take profit and 75 stop loss.

Because I am risking 75% of capital for a 180% return on capital my breakeven win rate (% of trades you need to win to be profitable) is 29.41%

We’re winning at 55.56%!

Boom!

There’s not enough data on lottos to be statistically significant but it is encouraging to see a trend emerge.

We also think it’s important that you think and we think and we all help each other when considering the breakeven win rate.

Risk Rate /(Risk Rate + Reward Rate)

Some scenarios using middle session, lotto backtester:

❌ Take profit 50%, Stop loss 50% - win ratio 44.44% breakeven 50.00%

✅ Take profit 40%, Stop loss 80% - win ratio 77.78% breakeven 66.67%

✅ Take profit 100%, Stop loss 50% - win ratio 44.44% breakeven 33.33%

🌶️ Take profit 220%, Stop loss 80% - win ratio 44.44% breakeven 26.67%

What you’re looking for here is a big difference between the win ratio of the trade and the breakeven rate.

Things we think -

When you’re first getting started cutting losses is the most important, followed by win rate, followed by sizing.

The win ratio here doesn’t change between 50%, 100% and 220% TP. Selling too early is killing your gains!

There was a significant drawdown of over 50% on many of these lottos. Waiting to buy lottos could be an incredible opportunity!

We’ve only sent 9 lottos out during the middle session so far and none of this is significant, but got dammmm is it interestin’.

Here’s a look at all of them in the middle session.

Crazy to see one of them go 6.31x!

Development up, stonk markets down.

We’re full steam ahead on BOBs and BATs development. The development team (way smarter than the shitpost team) says that technically it’s a modified version of a bollinger band strategy which is funny because this one guy used to always talk about those damn bands and we used to make fun of him and oh how the world has come full circle. Technically we prefer using an arbitrary number to do things rather than a standard-deviation but maybe we’ll have both and see who performs better.

Looking out at the market it’s a really nasty sonofabitch with everything properly bleeding out minus $NVO because fat people getting skinny will never go out of style.

Should bring some epic levels of volatility and be super tradeable. We haven’t seen an open like this in months maybe not even this year.

Going into it with an open mind, trying to avoid biases and just trade wherever the flow goes.

Reminder to keep it incredibly based and remember to always…

STAY FROSTY!

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