Same Shit. Different Month.

This weekend regulators met with JPM and PNC banks to negotiate the takeover of $FRC. The FDIC’s mandate being ensuring the stability of the financial system whereas JPM and PNC are for-profit entities incentivized to get the best deal possible for their shareholders.

The end result was more of the same. Government and taxpayers taking a big loss while too big to fail got a big win and even bigger. The “highly competitive bidding process” was anything but - a deal wasn’t announced until the market opened today.

Two things we found comical:

JPMorgan is getting about $92 billion in deposits in the deal, which includes the $30 billion that it and other large banks put into First Republic last month.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation agreed to absorb most of the losses on mortgages and commercial loans that JPMorgan is getting, and also provided it with a $50 billion credit line.

Not only is JPM getting its deposits + the other mega banks, but they also got the FDIC to eat the losses on the loans and extend them a line of credit.

It’s a sweet deal sending $JPM up 2.3% today and has Jamie Dimon puppeting the government’s message telling CNBC “this part of the crisis is over”. Maybe the FDIC got that part included for absorbing the losses.

Of course it’s only over until the next bank with significant commercial real estate exposure fails…

[ cnbc ]

Apple reports earnings Thursday

Apple has been on a tear this year up 30.34% and contributing over 21.27% of the entire S&P500’s positive gain. There’s no way to overstate its importance to the up and to the right moves the market has made this year. They report earnings Thursday after the close, leaving us only with NVDA that’s ripping 4.36% today on news that March chip sales were up month-over-month and the January decline may be behind us.

How the options market is positioned:

Current Price: $169.57 (-0.07%)

Expected Move: 3.4% 163.73 - $175.39

Highest OI Call: $175.00

Highest OI Put: $167.50

This will change significantly from now until Friday, but the flow is bullish and it looks positioned for Apple to make a move up. The open interest for the highest OI call is ~ 128% higher than the $167.50 put. We’ll send the robots in to watch for anything out of the ordinary.

They’re pounding the over today with the 170 call seeing 32 orders with 2.11m in premium and the 175 call 15 orders 1.18m in premium.

Someone always knows something…

The $PEPE coin guy got rich

Maybe it wasn’t the most elegant way to swap out of the position, but 1.7m from the cost of a six pack and pizza delivered from grubhub ($251) is an extraordinary trade.

The good:

Dumping it all at once in a single transaction and high gas to avoid bots nuking the price before you can

The bad:

Using metamask to swap and paying 0.875% for them to route the transaction.

Then again now that he’s rich he probably doesn’t care too much about it.

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