The show rolls on (unless you’re a regional bank, digital publisher or Bud Light)

Three of the four largest bank failures (in non-inflation-adjusted-united-states-dollars) have occurred in the last two months, but the show rolls on with the S&P500 about to breakout and $NVDA at 52-week highs.

And why shouldn’t it keep going?

A bank fails and the government immediately steps in to fix the situation at the cost of taxpayers and benefit of the too-big-to-fail banks that get bigger.

Whether that’s how the system is designed to work is irrelevant… because that’s how the system is working.

Look at this stat from someone with a very punchable face:

The biggest bank failures since the great financial crisis, 80% of the $SPY move comes from big-tech, $PEPE coin is still going at a $500,000,000 market cap and the Federal Reserve (which arguably got us into this mess by keeping rates near 0% during the post-ch1n3s3 virus boom) is predicted to raise rates by another 25bps at the meeting on Wednesday.

Fed Whisper says 25bps and a pause (not a pivot) otw

Raising rates makes stuff in the economy more expensive. It’s like if the sportsbook decides to add more juice to a line. More juice, less action… but maybe the stock market casino isn’t much different than Caesar’s Palace. Degens are gonna degen.

Lowered expectations have made earnings great, asset prices are up, the dollar ($DXY) is near 52-week lows and consumption isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

WSJ’s in-house fed whisperer says, “Federal Reserve officials are on track to increase interest rates 25bps at their meeting this week while deliberating whether that will be enough to then pause the fastest rate-raising cycle in 40 years.’

The fed ain’t like OPEC - they don’t like to surprise the markets and as soon as the robots sniff out a pivot this thing could rip.

Buying a few zero day calls at the close today feels like the right thing to do. We just wish it included a few beers and a pass for the buffet.

[ cnbc ]

Regional Banks… A crisis… Maybe???

Jamie Dimon’s message that the crisis is over after fleecing $FRC doesn’t appear to have trickled down to the other regional banks that bled out yesterday and continue to bleed today.

More shit different day strategy says many of these will have their equity go to zero and the too-big-to-fail will take over their operations.

It looks like the market is preemptively forcing the action by sending them to zero a bit ahead of schedule.

Shitco? Blame ChatGPT

Vice is filing for bankruptcy while Buzzfeed news is shutting down. It’s easy for them to blame chatgpt and AI, but we think it’s more so a failure for digital publishing to adapt to short-form video content compounded with the fact there are only so many shitbirds who wants to read left wing rants about Andrew Tate, wars in Africa and other political scandals.

$CHGG stock dropped 46.02% today because they said ChatGPT hurt growth. Why read a textbook for homework help when the answer is a prompt away? In hindsight plays like this seem ridiculously obvious and we’re sure if we dug through the options chain we would have seen someone positioned for this weeks ago but after missing the $FRC $5 put, not buying a life changing amount of $PEPE coin, we’re going to sit this one out.

Bad News for Bud Light

Conservatives are taking a much deserved victory lap on Bud Light sales falling faster week over week than your local regional bank stock. Perhaps it’s the first time a united front has worked against a megacorp gone woke and maybe a sign of more things to come.

It’s only fitting for the simulation the first line drawn in the sand was started by a bawitdaba rocker over alcoholic pisswater.

We understand Anheuser-Busch sells a lot more than Bud Light, but they’re at risk of losing the number one position (for all beer sales) to Modelo Especial. It’s difficult to see how they come back from the label. Coors is for cowboys, Bud light is for trans and Natty Ice is for blacking out. They tried to win back drinkers with a “shower beer” video using Zac Brown Band. It failed.

With tech layoffs and tech butt sniffer banks (SIVB and FRC) collapsing this has been a recession of the rich, but it wasn’t interest rates that claimed the first victim of the common man and woman… it was a transvestite tiktoker.

What a world. Good thing it’s Friday.

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