T E R E A M

(tech earnings rule everything always man)

Let’s start with the terrifying chart you’ve seen before but probably don’t think about very often.

This is where we are right now on the monthly for $SPY.

Now if you compare to the infamous Wall Street Cheat Sheet…

We lean towards complacency over any kind of cool off. The market has been in distribution mode but now its run out of narratives and there’s nothing left to push and all of the negative things are finally starting to pull us back down.

Remember when we mentioned breadth was weak?

Seven stocks; Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla account for 88% of the S&P500’s gains for the year.

Earnings. Earnings. Earnings.

Tesla’s the only company that reported so far and it’s one a way one return trip direct flight to goblin town with the stock down -14.33% in the past week.

Google and Microsoft report today, Meta tomorrow, Amazon on Thursday, Apple on May 4, followed by Nvidia in a month so they can analyze what worked and didn’t on the conference calls and spam the hell out of the good stuff like they did for AI. 

Remember Microsoft is one of the big three responsible for over half of the gains in SPY this year!

The setup going into earnings after the close:

$MSFT: bearish flow with highest open interest in $275 PUT $300 CALL

expected move 3.6% ± $9.99

$GOOG: bullish flow with highest open interest in $100 PUT $110 CALL

expected move 4.5% ± $4.81

Flip a coin, call your mom or jailbreak ChatGPT to pick the right direction because everything is selling off today except Apple bearing the weight of the entire index and of course $BBBY is up 15.05% because of course of course of course. 

Random chart:

We’re not zoomers but we didn’t pay that much attention to class or the markets as our time was primarily dedicated to class mating activities (interpret as you wish). Pulling up the chart earlier, it’s sort of mind blowing to see that it took 1,707 days for $SPY to breakeven if you bought the top of the bear market rally in May of 2009. Will history report or is this time really different?

Other news:

The oldest and creepiest president ever is running again which means a rematch with Trump followed by four more years of the Ukraine loving lizard people fully in control. The only question is does Biden pick someone other than Kamala Harris (the worst person) as VP? [ wsj ]

Reality stranger than Succession style fiction as right wing darling and the most popular political pundit in the world, Tucker Carlson, has been let go at Fox News. Letting go of your biggest star prior to an election cycle when you are a conservative news organization seems like a way to one-up Bud Light’s transexual fixation. Nice job. [ the hill ]

No one understands but it makes money has to be the slogan on the wall for $CBOE’s new product VIX1D which has been designed to “reflect the current day’s expected market volatility.” Given the full impact of 0dte trades has had on the market is not fully understood other than maybe possibly crushing the VIX, it makes total sense to launch a new complex product. If it leads to volmageddon you can thank Gary Gensler who’s too busy litigating against shitcoins to actually do his job. Two decade derivative trader Matthew Tym, “I have no idea what it’s pricing.” lol [ crains ]

No questions please: It was calm for a while and the we are so back vibes were flowing like a champagne brunch but after $FRC’s earnings disaster yesterday where they basically waived the white flag of defeat by searching for strategic options and not taking any questions on the call, the regional bank crisis is back on. (note: we noticed a ton of open interest in the $5 $FRC put for Friday but didn’t mention it because it was too much of a yolo. we will not make this mistake again and only try to bring you the best in degen).

Fat stocks get fatter. PepsiCo and McDonald’s both reported earnings beating on revenue and earnings through the complex Harverd mba-only strategy known as charging people more money for stuff. Pepsi was nearly flat on volume but raised prices by 16% while McDonald’s got more people to walk through the golden arches. Both stocks are at all-time highs adding more credence to the invest in the high (ex. $LMVH), invest in the low (fat stuff) and cut the middle thesis. Feeling crazy? Mix it up a little more by sprinkling in some $NOVO (fat loss drugs).

Somehow McDonald’s same-store sales in all of their markets grew exactly by 12.6%.

#RIGD

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