This time it’s different (no, probably not)

There are two proven methods that will 100% wipe out your portfolio.

First: Your option trade will come back (it won’t)

Second: This time it’s different (it’s not)

Perhaps we can all take comfort that Jerome Powell believes it’s possible we can avoid a recession after the fastest tightening global tightening cycle of all-time.

It’s a strong opinion from one of the most powerful people in the world that would likely hold stronger weight if he had not missed so poorly on inflation being transitory or if we could get through a full week without another bank exploring strategic options (aka going under).

We predicted everything he would say in the press conference, but his comments on the strength of the financial system did nothing to help stop the bleeding from $PACW -52.49% and $WAL -45.25%.

It’s hot under this tinfoil hat: The Fed’s mandate may be inflation and employment but we’re starting to think Jerome may have a secret mandate to destroy the regional banking system and consolidate all of the power at $JPM.

He’s obviously pretty good a that.

Market Movement:

Shopify $SHOP +25.78%: Logistics means moving stuff. Moving stuff takes people and things. People and things are expensive. Shopify burned billions on order-fulfillment operations including a last-mile startup that no one had ever heard of. A software company getting into that business was stupid. Now they’ve sold their logistics unit to Flexport which is smart. It’s a lot easier to make money off of software (that needs 100+ paid apps to run smoothly) and merchant processing loans (the biggest scam for entrepreneurs) than it is shipping and receiving stuff for your customers that sell 10 orders a month.

Paramount Global $PARA -24.97%: It’s a bad time to be in the budlight and woke cowboy television businesses. Paramount’s shitting the bed after changing the sheets; dividend cut, revenue down, and 1.7bn in charges to combine Showtime and Paramount+ [ wsj ]. Streaming is in what we call the holy shit we are bleeding money and now we have to take the business serious phase that sports betting names like Draftkings $DKNG were when every single ad on television was about daily fantasy. Surely Yellowstone star Kevin Costner fighting with their golden goose show runner Taylor Sheridan, leaving the Dutton Ranch after next season and getting divorced doesn’t help. Can you imagine James Galdofini walking before The Sopranos ended? Actually… maybe he should have.

Apple $AAPL -0.85% earnings after the bell: Channel your inner Bruce Buffer here as it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for around the world… Apple is either sending us straight to Valhalla or down to Goblin Town. The implied move is +/-3.8% with the highest open interest in the $175 call and $162.50 put. We dug into the option flow today it’s trending bearish notably someone sweeped 3000 $150p at the ask, then about fifteen minutes later that same someone or a new someone sweeped 1020 x $165p and 2000 x $150p within 30 seconds. We’re in the second period now (mid-day) and would expect the action to increase towards the close.

Apple gets the Joe Biden glamour pass treatment from the media. They never get asked the hard questions about China which effectively controls their supply chain and access to the region (20% of revenue), which means they’re the puppeteers pulling the strings.

There is no way China will let Apple move manufacturing out of country without facing repercussions. One misstep against the party and the party will send their own Jack Ma ant-financial style message. It may all pull forward much faster if tensions in Taiwan drag the US into another proxy war.

[ Apple is a Chinese company - FT ]

It’s rigd: Apple is lauded here in the USA for defending user privacy meanwhile they facilitate surveillance and government censorship in China.

Whatever… Androids are for losers.

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